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Juventud Torremolinos vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vélez
Vélez
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos54%
×Draw25%
Vélez22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.63
Vélez
0.93

Juventud Torremolinos creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
78%
Juventud Torremolinos or Vélez
75%
Draw or Vélez
46%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
29%
Vélez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
80%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
48%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
22%
Vélez 1+ goals
61%
Vélez 2+ goals
24%
Vélez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
71%
Vélez (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vélez attack 1.19 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
54%
level
25%
Vélez scores more
22%

Juventud Torremolinos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Juventud Torremolinos 1–1 Vélez

Juventud Torremolinos and Vélez drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.