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Vélez vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
CANC
00:00
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vélez43%
×Draw26%
Huétor Vega31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.40
Huétor Vega
1.15

Vélez creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
69%
Vélez or Huétor Vega
74%
Draw or Huétor Vega
57%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
20%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
75%
Vélez 2+ goals
41%
Vélez 3+ goals
17%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
68%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
32%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
58%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vélez scores more
43%
level
26%
Huétor Vega scores more
31%

Vélez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vélez host Huétor Vega

March 14, 2020: Vélez take on Huétor Vega in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vélez host Huétor Vega at Estadio Vivar Téllez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.