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Huétor Vega vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Vélez
Vélez
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Huétor Vega45%
×Draw25%
Vélez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.52
Vélez
1.20

Huétor Vega creates 27% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
70%
Huétor Vega or Vélez
75%
Draw or Vélez
55%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
22%
Vélez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
78%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
45%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
20%
Vélez 1+ goals
70%
Vélez 2+ goals
34%
Vélez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
60%
Vélez (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vélez attack 1.19 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
45%
level
25%
Vélez scores more
30%

Huétor Vega at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 1–3 Vélez

Vélez beat Huétor Vega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.