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Vélez vs Estepona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Vélez
Vélez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estepona
Estepona
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Vivar Téllez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vélez49%
×Draw27%
Estepona25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vélez
1.46
Estepona
0.95

Vélez creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vélez
1.41
Estepona
0.64

allows per match

Vélez
1.26
Estepona
1.50

finishing

Vélez+0.00on par
Estepona+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vélez ↓

Estepona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vélez or draw
75%
Vélez or Estepona
73%
Draw or Estepona
51%

Winning margin

Vélez wins by 2+
24%
Estepona wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vélez 1+ goals
77%
Vélez 2+ goals
43%
Vélez 3+ goals
18%
Estepona 1+ goals
61%
Estepona 2+ goals
25%
Estepona 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vélez (draw refunded)
67%
Estepona (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vélez at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Estepona away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vélez attack 1.41 + Estepona defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Estepona attack 0.64 + Vélez defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vélez scores more
49%
level
27%
Estepona scores more
25%

Vélez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vélez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Vélez 1–0 Estepona

Vélez beat Estepona 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Vivar Téllez in Vélez-Málaga.