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Estepona vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Estepona
Estepona
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vélez
Vélez
12/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Estepona37%
×Draw26%
Vélez37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estepona
1.38
Vélez
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Estepona
1.14
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Estepona
1.57
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Estepona+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estepona ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Estepona or draw
63%
Estepona or Vélez
74%
Draw or Vélez
63%

Winning margin

Estepona wins by 2+
17%
Vélez wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Estepona 1+ goals
75%
Estepona 2+ goals
40%
Estepona 3+ goals
16%
Vélez 1+ goals
75%
Vélez 2+ goals
40%
Vélez 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Estepona (draw refunded)
50%
Vélez (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estepona at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estepona attack 1.14 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vélez attack 1.19 + Estepona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Estepona scores more
37%
level
26%
Vélez scores more
37%

Estepona at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Estepona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Estepona 0–1 Vélez

Vélez beat Estepona 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez in Estepona.