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Velez Sarsfield vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpia
Olimpia
M. Carrizo 33'
H. Fernandez 90'
5/8/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Velez Sarsfield51%
×Draw23%
Olimpia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.80
Olimpia
1.22

Velez Sarsfield creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.80
Olimpia
1.24

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.20
Olimpia
1.80

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
74%
Velez Sarsfield or Olimpia
77%
Draw or Olimpia
49%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
28%
Olimpia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
83%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
54%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
27%
Olimpia 1+ goals
70%
Olimpia 2+ goals
34%
Olimpia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
66%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.80 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Olimpia attack 1.24 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
51%
level
23%
Olimpia scores more
26%

Velez Sarsfield at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
C. OrdonezVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · M
7.5

Match Events

15'
Richard Ortiz
33'
M. Carrizo↳ F. Pizzini
50'
L. Abreu← C. Olmedo
65'
Jano Gordon
68'
M. Pellegrini← F. Pizzini
68'
D. Gonzalez← R. Redes
68'
L. Pratto← H. Benitez Sanchez
71'
K. A. Vazquez← C. Ordonez
72'
Derlis González
80'
A. Montoro← M. Carrizo
80'
T. Silvero← J. Gordon
84'
Álvaro Montoro
84'
H. Fernandez← I. Leguizamon
84'
E. Lopez← J. Dominguez
90'
H. Fernandez

Possession

48%Velez

Shots

8Velez

Pass accuracy

51%Velez

Statistics

VelezOlimpia
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots12
1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.87
4Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target3
2Off Target7
2Blocked2
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
402Total Passes422
303Accurate Passes307
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.42Goals Prevented0.42
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Olimpia

Velez Sarsfield and Olimpia drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Carrizo (33'), H. Fernandez (90').

Olimpia controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.