Olimpia 0–4 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Velez Sarsfield

F. Pizzini 90'

M. Carrizo 56'

B. Romero 49' (pen), 25'

4/9/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpia43%

×Draw27%

Velez Sarsfield30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.08

Olimpia

1.37

Velez Sarsfield

1.08

Olimpia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.07

1.08

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Olimpia

1.54

Velez Sarsfield

1.07

allows per match

Olimpia

1.08

Velez Sarsfield

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

70%

Olimpia or Velez Sarsfield

73%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

57%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

20%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

75%

Olimpia 2+ goals

40%

Olimpia 3+ goals

16%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

66%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

29%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

59%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.54 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.07 + Olimpia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia scores more

43%

level

27%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

30%

Olimpia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Marchiori

Velez Sarsfield · G

9.3

Match Events

25'

B. Romero↳ E. Gomez

46'

D. Fernandez← A. Lagos

49'

B. RomeroPenalty

53'

Claudio Baeza

55'

Javier Domínguez

55'

D. Gonzalez← A. F. Franco Zayas

56'

M. Carrizo↳ A. Montoro

65'

F. Pizzini← A. Montoro

65'

K. A. Vazquez← C. Baeza

71'

Damián Fernández

75'

H. Benitez Sanchez← D. Benedetto

75'

M. Santos← M. Carrizo

79'

Richard Ortiz

81'

Derlis González

89'

M. Gomez← R. Ortiz

90+1'

T. Silvero← E. Mammana

90'

F. Pizzini↳ E. Gomez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlimpiaVelez

Overview

58%Possession42%

26Total Shots11

0.94Expected Goals (xG)2.13

6Corners5

10Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots11

9On Target6

10Off Target2

7Blocked3

11Inside Box6

15Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

435Total Passes324

324Accurate Passes238

74%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

3.02Goals Prevented3.02

Discipline

10Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2