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Velez Sarsfield vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
F. Mancuello 90+3'
L. Janson 69'
T. Almada 45'
M. Zunino 78'
5/13/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 4Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Velez Sarsfield53%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.69
LDU de Quito
1.01

Velez Sarsfield creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.80
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.20
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
77%
Velez Sarsfield or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
47%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
29%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
82%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
50%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
24%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
64%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
27%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
70%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.80 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
53%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
23%

Velez Sarsfield at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. JansonVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · M
8.7

Match Events

24'
J. Julio
45'
T. Almada↳ L. Janson
59'
M. Zunino← A. Muñoz
67'
R. Centurión← T. Almada
67'
M. Brizuela← A. Bouzat
69'
L. Janson↳ R. Centurión
70'
P. Galdames
70'
L. Piovi← L. Villarruel
72'
J. Lucero
74'
L. Ayala← C. Cruz
74'
C. Martínez← J. Julio
76'
J. Alcivar
77'
M. de los Santos← F. Ortega
78'
M. Zunino↳ C. Martínez
86'
F. Mancuello← A. Mulet
87'
L. Piovi
87'
C. Tarragona← J. Lucero
90+3'
F. Mancuello

Possession

57%Velez

Shots

17Velez

Pass accuracy

53%Velez

Statistics

VelezLDU
Overview
57%Possession43%
17Total Shots10
4Corners5
17Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target2
8Off Target5
3Blocked3
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
493Total Passes359
413Accurate Passes265
84%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs LDU de Quito

Velez Sarsfield beat LDU de Quito 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 13, 2021.

Goals: T. Almada (45'), L. Janson (69'), M. Zunino (78'), F. Mancuello (90+3').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.