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LDU de Quito vs Velez Sarsfield — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
M. Zunino 64'
C. Martínez 53', 28'
P. Galdames 42'
4/27/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LDU de Quito57%
×Draw23%
Velez Sarsfield19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.75
Velez Sarsfield
0.91

LDU de Quito creates 92% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
Velez Sarsfield
1.07

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
Velez Sarsfield
1.20

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Velez Sarsfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Velez Sarsfield
77%
Draw or Velez Sarsfield
43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
32%
Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
83%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
52%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
25%
Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
60%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
23%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
75%
Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.07 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
57%
level
23%
Velez Sarsfield scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
C. MartínezLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · F
8.5

Match Events

-5'
Juan Kaprof
18'
Franklin Guerra
28'
C. Martínez↳ B. Arce
33'
Billy Arce
42'
P. Galdames↳ J. Lucero
46'
L. Ayala← C. Cruz
46'
L. Caicedo← F. Guerra
49'
Luis Caicedo
53'
C. Martínez↳ L. Piovi
62'
A. Ordóñez← A. Muñoz
63'
Santiago Cáseres
63'
R. Centurión← M. Brizuela
64'
M. Zunino
67'
L. Amarilla← C. Martínez
72'
J. Quinteros← M. Zunino
73'
H. De La Fuente← T. Guidara
74'
L. Orellano← T. Almada
80'
A. Bouzat← L. Janson
80'
F. Monzón← P. Galdames
90+1'
Luis Ayala
90+1'
Florián Monzón

Possession

39%LDU

Shots

16LDU

Pass accuracy

48%LDU

Statistics

LDUVelez
Overview
39%Possession61%
16Total Shots13
5Corners3
17Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots13
7On Target6
8Off Target7
1Blocked0
6Inside Box8
10Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
321Total Passes507
258Accurate Passes434
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls15
5Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Velez Sarsfield

LDU de Quito beat Velez Sarsfield 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 27, 2021.

Goals: C. Martínez (28', 53'), P. Galdames (42'), M. Zunino (64').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.