Velez Sarsfield 2–0 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats

Velez Sarsfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fortaleza EC

T. Galvan 28'

M. Carrizo 7'

8/19/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Velez Sarsfield52%

×Draw24%

Fortaleza EC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Velez Sarsfield

1.68

Fortaleza EC

1.04

Velez Sarsfield creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

0.89

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

1.80

Fortaleza EC

0.89

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

1.20

Fortaleza EC

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

77%

Velez Sarsfield or Fortaleza EC

76%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

48%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

28%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

81%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

50%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

24%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

65%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

28%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

69%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.80 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fortaleza EC attack 0.89 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

52%

level

24%

Fortaleza EC scores more

23%

Velez Sarsfield at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Gordon

Fortaleza EC

8.0

Match Events

7'

8'

28'

40'

42'

46'

46'

J. Herrera← Breno Lopes

46'

J. Lucero← Deyverson

46'

Allanzinho← Marinho

61'

Yago Pikachu← Ze Welison

66'

T. Andrada← T. Galvan

66'

M. Pellegrini← I. Machuca

68'

Lucas Sasha

75'

A. Bareiro← E. Mancuso

75'

F. Pizzini← M. Carrizo

84'

A. Bouzat← R. Aliendro

84'

M. Santos← B. Romero

90+1'

Yago Pikachu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VelezFortaleza

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots8

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.26

4Corners4

12Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target4

5Blocked1

11Inside Box2

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

442Total Passes377

332Accurate Passes276

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-1.41Goals Prevented-1.41

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2