Fortaleza EC 0–0 Velez Sarsfield: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

8/12/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fortaleza EC42%

×Draw29%

Velez Sarsfield29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Fortaleza EC

1.25

Velez Sarsfield

0.99

Fortaleza EC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.30

creates per match

1.07

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.30

Velez Sarsfield

1.07

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

0.90

Velez Sarsfield

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

71%

Fortaleza EC or Velez Sarsfield

71%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

58%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

19%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

71%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

36%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

13%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

63%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

26%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

59%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.30 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.07 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

42%

level

29%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

29%

Fortaleza EC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

H. Leite

Fortaleza EC · G

7.7

Match Events

2'

Claudio Baeza

19'

Benjamin Kuscevic

21'

E. Britez← B. Kuscevic

25'

Emanuel Brítez

46'

K. Andrade← Lucca Prior

46'

A. Quiros← E. Mammana

66'

Rodrigo Aliendro

68'

I. Machuca← M. Pellegrini

74'

A. Bareiro← Deyverson

74'

Matheus Rossetto← Emmanuel Martinez

78'

T. Andrada← T. Galvan

83'

84'

88'

88'

90+3'

90+1'

F. Pizzini← B. Romero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaVelez

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots13

0.44Expected Goals (xG)0.96

5Corners5

15Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots13

1On Target3

6Off Target5

6Blocked5

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box9

Passing

64%Possession36%

402Total Passes235

316Accurate Passes150

79%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

15Fouls19

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Fortaleza EC 0–0 Velez Sarsfield

Fortaleza EC and Velez Sarsfield drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 12, 2025.

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.

Fortaleza EC vs Velez Sarsfield — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Fortaleza EC 0–0 Velez Sarsfield