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Velez Sarsfield vs Belgrano Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
10/27/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Velez Sarsfield49%
×Draw30%
Belgrano Cordoba21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.25
Belgrano Cordoba
0.71

Velez Sarsfield creates 76% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 67 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.34
Belgrano Cordoba
0.70

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.72
Belgrano Cordoba
1.15

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
79%
Velez Sarsfield or Belgrano Cordoba
70%
Draw or Belgrano Cordoba
51%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
23%
Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
71%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
36%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
13%
Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
51%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
16%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
70%
Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.72 · 122 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.34 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.70 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
49%
level
30%
Belgrano Cordoba scores more
21%

Velez Sarsfield at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Profesional Argentina: Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Belgrano Cordoba

Velez Sarsfield and Belgrano Cordoba drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.