Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Velez Sarsfield

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

6/3/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 19Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba39%

×Draw30%

Velez Sarsfield30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.92

Belgrano Cordoba

1.10

Velez Sarsfield

0.92

Belgrano Cordoba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 121 away

1.10

creates per match

1.02

0.82

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.10

Velez Sarsfield

1.02

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.82

Velez Sarsfield

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

70%

Belgrano Cordoba or Velez Sarsfield

70%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

61%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

67%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

30%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

10%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

60%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

23%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

57%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.10 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.02 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

39%

level

30%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

30%

Belgrano Cordoba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff