Velez Sarsfield 3–1 Atletico Tucuman

Velez Sarsfield

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

D. Valdes 90'

B. Romero 39', 36'

M. Bajamich 14'

9/29/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield48%

×Draw27%

Atletico Tucuman25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.95

Velez Sarsfield

1.41

Atletico Tucuman

0.95

Velez Sarsfield creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

1.10

0.79

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

1.44

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

0.79

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

75%

Velez Sarsfield or Atletico Tucuman

73%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

52%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

76%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

41%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

48%

level

27%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

25%

Velez Sarsfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Romero

Velez Sarsfield · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

Adrián Sánchez

14'

M. Bajamich

31'

Agustín Bouzat

36'

B. Romero↳ M. Pellegrini

39'

B. Romero↳ T. Galvan

55'

Francisco Pizzini

60'

Damián Martínez

64'

M. Villa← D. Martinez

64'

R. Ruiz← K. Lopez

64'

L. Godoy← N. Lamendola

67'

R. Aliendro← M. Pellegrini

70'

Claudio Baeza

72'

G. Abeldano← M. Bajamich

78'

D. Valdes← T. Galvan

78'

N. Franco← A. Sanchez

81'

84'

87'

87'

87'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VelezAtletico

Overview

53%Possession47%

21Total Shots8

2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.13

3Corners2

10Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots8

9On Target4

7Off Target4

5Blocked0

14Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

447Total Passes416

337Accurate Passes297

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

10Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs Atletico Tucuman

Velez Sarsfield beat Atletico Tucuman 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 29, 2025.

Goals: M. Bajamich (14'), B. Romero (36', 39'), D. Valdes (90').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (53%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Buenos Aires.

Velez Sarsfield vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Velez Sarsfield vs Atletico Tucuman