Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Velez Sarsfield

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Velez Sarsfield

Marcelo González 90+4'

J. Florentín 49'

2/21/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 4Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Tucuman41%

×Draw30%

Velez Sarsfield29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchVelez Sarsfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.90

Atletico Tucuman

1.15

Velez Sarsfield

0.90

Atletico Tucuman creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

0.90

0.89

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

Velez Sarsfield

0.90

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Velez Sarsfield

0.92

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.09on par

Velez Sarsfield-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Velez Sarsfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

71%

Atletico Tucuman or Velez Sarsfield

70%

Draw or Velez Sarsfield

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

18%

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

11%

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

59%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

23%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

59%

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.38 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Velez Sarsfield attack 0.90 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

41%

level

30%

Velez Sarsfield scores more

29%

Atletico Tucuman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

E. Cabrera

Velez Sarsfield · M

7.7

Match Events

25'

Joaquín Pereyra

48'

Yonatan Cabral

49'

J. Florentín↳ E. Cabrera

53'

59'

61'

66'

67'

Marcelo González← A. Sánchez

67'

I. Maestro Puch← M. Estigarribia

67'

J. Fernández← S. Castro

68'

Miguel Brizuela

74'

C. Menéndez← R. Ruiz Rodríguez

74'

R. Tesuri← H. De La Fuente

79'

79'

81'

84'

89'

90+6'

90+6'

90+1'

90+4'

Marcelo González↳ C. Menéndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoVelez

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots17

3Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target6

3Off Target8

2Blocked3

7Inside Box14

1Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

360Total Passes381

263Accurate Passes287

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield

Atletico Tucuman and Velez Sarsfield drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 21, 2023.

Goals: J. Florentín (49'), Marcelo González (90+4').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.

Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield