Velež Nevesinje 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Velež Nevesinje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

11/25/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 17Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Velež Nevesinje58%

×Draw22%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velež NevesinjeExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.01

Velež Nevesinje

1.89

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.01

Velež Nevesinje creates 87% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

1.76

creates per match

0.88

1.14

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.76

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.14

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw

80%

Velež Nevesinje or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

78%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

42%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+

34%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals

85%

Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals

56%

Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals

29%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

64%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

27%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)

74%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more

58%

level

22%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

20%

Velež Nevesinje at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff