Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1–2 Velež Nevesinje

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Velež Nevesinje

6/1/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 34Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad60%

×Draw21%

Velež Nevesinje19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Mrkonjić GradExpected goals in this matchVelež Nevesinje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.09

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.09

Velež Nevesinje

1.09

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad creates 92% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

1.69

creates per match

0.94

1.24

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.69

Velež Nevesinje

0.94

allows per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.24

Velež Nevesinje

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad ↓

Velež Nevesinje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or draw

81%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or Velež Nevesinje

79%

Draw or Velež Nevesinje

40%

Winning margin

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

37%

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

88%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

62%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

34%

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals

66%

Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals

30%

Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

76%

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Velež Nevesinje away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 1.69 + Velež Nevesinje defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.09

Velež Nevesinje attack 0.94 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

60%

level

21%

Velež Nevesinje scores more

19%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff