Velež Nevesinje 1–1 Modriča: Result & Stats

Velež Nevesinje

FT

1 – 1

Modriča

3/23/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 21Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Velež Nevesinje63%

×Draw21%

Modriča16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velež NevesinjeExpected goals in this matchModriča

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.92

Velež Nevesinje

2.05

Modriča

0.92

Velež Nevesinje creates 123% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 71 away

1.76

creates per match

0.70

1.14

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.76

Modriča

0.70

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.14

Modriča

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

Modriča →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw

84%

Velež Nevesinje or Modriča

79%

Draw or Modriča

37%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+

39%

Modriča wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals

87%

Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals

61%

Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals

33%

Modriča 1+ goals

60%

Modriča 2+ goals

23%

Modriča 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)

80%

Modriča (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.05

Modriča attack 0.70 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more

63%

level

21%

Modriča scores more

16%

Velež Nevesinje at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff