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Modriča vs Velež Nevesinje — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
9/1/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 4Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Modriča62%
×Draw20%
Velež Nevesinje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
2.10
Velež Nevesinje
1.02

Modriča creates 106% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 50 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Velež Nevesinje
0.94

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Velež Nevesinje
2.50

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Velež Nevesinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
82%
Modriča or Velež Nevesinje
80%
Draw or Velež Nevesinje
38%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
38%
Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
88%
Modriča 2+ goals
62%
Modriča 3+ goals
35%
Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
64%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
27%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
78%
Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Velež Nevesinje away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Velež Nevesinje defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Velež Nevesinje attack 0.94 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Modriča scores more
62%
level
20%
Velež Nevesinje scores more
18%

Modriča at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 1–2 Velež Nevesinje

Velež Nevesinje beat Modriča 2-1 in 1st League - RS on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.