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Veleshta vs Kadino — Second League 2019

Veleshta
Veleshta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kadino
Kadino
3/13/2021Second LeagueSecond League · West - 19Stadion Velešta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Veleshta55%
×Draw25%
Kadino20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleshta
1.60
Kadino
0.85

Veleshta creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Veleshta
1.44
Kadino
0.71

allows per match

Veleshta
1.00
Kadino
1.76

finishing

Veleshta+0.00on par
Kadino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleshta ↓

Kadino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veleshta or draw
80%
Veleshta or Kadino
75%
Draw or Kadino
45%

Winning margin

Veleshta wins by 2+
29%
Kadino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Veleshta 1+ goals
80%
Veleshta 2+ goals
47%
Veleshta 3+ goals
22%
Kadino 1+ goals
57%
Kadino 2+ goals
21%
Kadino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veleshta (draw refunded)
73%
Kadino (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleshta at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Kadino away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleshta attack 1.44 + Kadino defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kadino attack 0.71 + Veleshta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Veleshta scores more
55%
level
25%
Kadino scores more
20%

Veleshta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Veleshta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Veleshta 2–0 Kadino

Veleshta beat Kadino 2-0 in Second League on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Velešta in Veleshta.