Kadino 0–0 Veleshta: Result & Stats | Second League

Kadino

FT

0 – 0

Veleshta

11/8/2020

Second League · West - 10Teren FK Kadino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kadino44%

×Draw29%

Veleshta27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KadinoExpected goals in this matchVeleshta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.92

Kadino

1.24

Veleshta

0.92

Kadino creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

1.19

creates per match

0.93

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kadino

1.19

Veleshta

0.93

allows per match

Kadino

0.90

Veleshta

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kadino+0.00on par

Veleshta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kadino ↓

Veleshta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kadino or draw

73%

Kadino or Veleshta

71%

Draw or Veleshta

56%

Winning margin

Kadino wins by 2+

19%

Veleshta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kadino 1+ goals

71%

Kadino 2+ goals

35%

Kadino 3+ goals

13%

Veleshta 1+ goals

60%

Veleshta 2+ goals

23%

Veleshta 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kadino (draw refunded)

61%

Veleshta (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kadino at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Veleshta away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kadino attack 1.19 + Veleshta defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Veleshta attack 0.93 + Kadino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kadino scores more

44%

level

29%

Veleshta scores more

27%

Kadino at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kadino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff