Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veles vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
5/29/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Avangard Stadium
40%
Veles
model favours
40%34%26%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
76%
under 2.5 goals
32%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veles40%
×Draw34%
Torpedo Moskva26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
0.97
Torpedo Moskva
0.73

Veles creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 36 away

creates per match

Veles
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.03

allows per match

Veles
0.43
Torpedo Moskva
0.94

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Veles or draw
74%
Veles or Torpedo Moskva
66%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
60%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
62%
Veles 2+ goals
25%
Veles 3+ goals
7%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
52%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
17%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
60%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.03 + Veles defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more
40%
level
34%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
26%

Veles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • 71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Veles host Torpedo Moskva

May 29, 2027: Veles take on Torpedo Moskva in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Veles host Torpedo Moskva at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.