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Torpedo Moskva vs Veles — Cup 2019

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskvaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Veles
Veles
A. Orekhov 67'
D. Bakic 45'
A. Galoyan 7' (pen)
10/16/2025CupCup · Regions Path - Semi-finalsArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Torpedo Moskva25%
×Draw22%
Veles53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.27
Veles
1.94

Veles creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.10
Veles
2.57

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.30
Veles
1.43

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
47%
Torpedo Moskva or Veles
78%
Draw or Veles
75%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%
Veles wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
72%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
14%
Veles 1+ goals
86%
Veles 2+ goals
58%
Veles 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
32%
Veles (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Veles away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.10 + Veles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Veles attack 2.57 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
25%
level
22%
Veles scores more
53%

Veles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Ishkhan Geloyan
7'
A. GaloyanPenalty
45'
D. Bakic
46'
V. Churilov← G. Shevchenko
46'
K. Danilin← D. Bakic
46'
A. Kashtanov← V. Dunay
46'
M. Rybalko← P. Kotov
46'
A. Shubin← D. Biryukov
58'
Vladislav Galkin
63'
M. Kovalkov← K. Skvortsov
67'
A. Orekhov
68'
V. Shitov← A. Yushin
68'
O. Smirnov← V. Galkin
68'
S. Lapinsky← E. Sysoev
74'
A. Lomakin← A. Galoyan
90'
Danil Stepanov
90'
Mikhail Rybalko

Statistics

TorpedoVeles
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Veles

Torpedo Moskva beat Veles 3-0 in Cup on October 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Galoyan (7' pen), D. Bakic (45'), A. Orekhov (67').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.