Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Veles: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Veles

A. Kalmykov 15'

5/7/2022

First League · Round 36Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Torpedo Moskva50%

×Draw27%

Veles23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Torpedo Moskva

1.45

Veles

0.90

Torpedo Moskva creates 61% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 58 away

1.55

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Veles

0.95

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Veles

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

77%

Torpedo Moskva or Veles

73%

Draw or Veles

50%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

25%

Veles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

77%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

18%

Veles 1+ goals

59%

Veles 2+ goals

23%

Veles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

68%

Veles (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Veles attack 0.95 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

50%

level

27%

Veles scores more

23%

Torpedo Moskva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

25'

41'

46'

56'

M. Denilkhanov← A. Kakhidze

56'

V. Kabakhidze← A. Vulfov

64'

I. Logua← T. Dzhikiya

64'

I. Vorobjev← K. Kertanov

73'

A. Orekhov← I. Enin

73'

D. Laptev← A. Kalmykov

79'

Vladimir Kabakhidze

79'

D. Ezhkov← G. Sarkisyan

85'

E. Dorokhov← I. Temnikov

90+3'

T. Abdrashitov← I. Lebedenko

Statistics

TorpedoVeles

Overview

5Corners4

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Veles

Torpedo Moskva beat Veles 1-0 in First League on May 7, 2022.

Goals: A. Kalmykov (15').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Torpedo Moskva vs Veles — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Veles