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Veles vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
16:00
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
3/13/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Avangard Stadium
Big match
43%
Veles
model favours
43%25%32%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Veles43%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.50
Ska-khabarovsk
1.27

Veles creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

Veles
1.50
Ska-khabarovsk
0.98

allows per match

Veles
1.57
Ska-khabarovsk
1.51

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veles or draw
68%
Veles or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
57%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
21%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
78%
Veles 2+ goals
44%
Veles 3+ goals
19%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
72%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
36%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
57%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.50 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.98 + Veles defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Veles scores more
43%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
32%

Veles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veles vs Ska-khabarovsk — Match Preview

Veles face Ska-khabarovsk on March 13, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Veles host Ska-khabarovsk at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.