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Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Veles
Veles
S. Burdakov 81'
D. Yanov 54'
V. Aleynikov 13'
Unknown 69'
O. Smirnov 4'
2/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk37%
×Draw25%
Veles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.39
Veles
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.44
Veles
1.67

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.13
Veles
1.33

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
62%
Ska-khabarovsk or Veles
75%
Draw or Veles
63%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
17%
Veles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
75%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
40%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
16%
Veles 1+ goals
75%
Veles 2+ goals
41%
Veles 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
50%
Veles (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Veles away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.44 + Veles defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Veles attack 1.67 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
37%
level
25%
Veles scores more
38%

Veles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
O. Smirnov
13'
V. Aleynikov
54'
D. Yanov
69'
81'
S. Burdakov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ska-khabarovsk 3–2 Veles

Ska-khabarovsk beat Veles 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.

Goals: O. Smirnov (4'), V. Aleynikov (13'), D. Yanov (54'), ? (69'), S. Burdakov (81').