Veles 1–2 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ska-khabarovsk

V. Kabakhidze 84'

M. Gashchenkov 88' (pen)

R. Manuylov 45+1'

4/6/2022

First League · Round 31Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles43%

×Draw26%

Ska-khabarovsk30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Veles

1.44

Ska-khabarovsk

1.16

Veles creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 141 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Ska-khabarovsk

1.06

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Ska-khabarovsk

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veles or draw

70%

Veles or Ska-khabarovsk

74%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

57%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

21%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

76%

Veles 2+ goals

42%

Veles 3+ goals

18%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

69%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

32%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

59%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Veles scores more

43%

level

26%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

30%

Veles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Georgi Gongadze

19'

Artur Galoyan

38'

D. Tsallagov← D. Levitskiy

45+1'

R. Manuylov

55'

D. Ezhkov← G. Sarkisyan

66'

Aleksandr Kakhidze

68'

A. Gagloev← M. Martusevich

68'

D. Barkov← D. Karaev

77'

T. Dzhikiya← A. Korotkov

82'

84'

86'

86'

88'

M. GashchenkovPenalty

90+2'

Denis Fomin

90+1'

K. Aliev← G. Gongadze

Veles4-2-3-1

Ska-khabarovsk3-4-3

21

▼

Gongadze

9

▼

Karaev

22

▼

Levitskiy

24

▼

Martusevi

7

⚽

33

5

17

27

⚽

14

41

1

19

5

24

34

11

2

▼

Korotkov

8

Maiga

20

Galoyan

81

⚽

Kabakhidz

99

▼

Sarkisyan

Manager: D. Bushuev

55'▲D. Ezhkov←▼G. Sarkisyan

77'▲T. Dzhikiya←▼A. Korotkov

Veles substitutes

33Ezhkov9Dzhikiya4Mikhaylenko6Adeniyi7Logua16Vlasov17Abdullahi22Denilkhanov35Kosarevskiy84Vorobjev97Maltsev

Manager: A. Poddubskiy

38'▲D. Tsallagov←▼D. Levitskiy

68'▲A. Gagloev←▼M. Martusevich

68'▲D. Barkov←▼D. Karaev

90+1'▲K. Aliev←▼G. Gongadze

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

77Tsallagov13Gagloev92Barkov11Aliev2Yagjaev4Tikhonov20Dmitriev50Sugrobov70Akhmaev

First League: Veles 1–2 Ska-khabarovsk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Veles 2-1 in First League on April 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Manuylov (45+1'), V. Kabakhidze (84'), M. Gashchenkov (88' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.

Veles vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Veles 1–2 Ska-khabarovsk