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Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

Veles
Veles
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Avangard Stadium
36%
Veles
model favours
36%29%35%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veles36%
×Draw29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.11
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

creates per match

Veles
1.11
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.73

allows per match

Veles
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.11

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Veles or draw
65%
Veles or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
64%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
15%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
67%
Veles 2+ goals
30%
Veles 3+ goals
10%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
66%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
51%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.11 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.73 + Veles defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Veles scores more
36%
level
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
35%

Veles at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Veles
WDLL
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Match Preview

Veles face Shinnik Yaroslavl on October 17, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Veles host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Avangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.