Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–2 Veles: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Veles

E. Nizamutdinov 85' (pen)

A. Maksimenko 45+1'

I. Klimov 5'

8/22/2020

First League · Round 5Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl41%

×Draw29%

Veles30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.01

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.23

Veles

1.01

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 22% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 58 away

1.13

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Veles

0.95

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Veles

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

70%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Veles

71%

Draw or Veles

59%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

18%

Veles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

71%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

35%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

13%

Veles 1+ goals

64%

Veles 2+ goals

27%

Veles 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

58%

Veles (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Veles attack 0.95 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

41%

level

29%

Veles scores more

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

12'

20'

34'

45+1'

47'

53'

55'

N. Matskharashvili← A. Gongapshev

58'

E. Strelov← P. Evseev

58'

T. Pukhov← E. Nasedkin

60'

Eldar Nizamutdinov

63'

A. Vakulich← P. Kotov

64'

Timur Pukhov

73'

Mamadou Maiga

74'

I. Stefanovich← A. Baev

76'

R. Fishchenko← M. Maiga

76'

N. Makarov← A. Galoyan

81'

N. Golub← I. Oleynikov

84'

Nikita Kirsanov

85'

E. NizamutdinovPenalty

90+1'

D. Polyakov← A. Maksimenko

Shinnik4-4-1-1

Veles4-3-3

55

⚽

▼

Maksimenk

21

▼

Baev

88

▼

Maiga

34

Osipov

11

▼

Galoyan

10

Kirsanov

2

Botaka-Yo

77

▼

Kotov

20

Malaniya

80

⚽

93

13

44

17

8

▼

Evseev

64

Kutin

9

⚽

Nizamutdi

7

▼

Oleynikov

14

▼

Nasedkin

5

Zinkov

22

Samodin

77

▼

Gongapshe

Manager: A. Pobegalov

55'▲N. Matskharashvili←▼A. Gongapshev

58'▲E. Strelov←▼P. Evseev

58'▲T. Pukhov←▼E. Nasedkin

81'▲N. Golub←▼I. Oleynikov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

10Matskharashvili3Strelov11Pukhov21Golub4Steshin16Yashin72Maslennikov

Manager: A. Stukalov

63'▲A. Vakulich←▼P. Kotov

74'▲I. Stefanovich←▼A. Baev

76'▲R. Fishchenko←▼M. Maiga

76'▲N. Makarov←▼A. Galoyan

90+1'▲D. Polyakov←▼A. Maksimenko

Veles substitutes

42Vakulich9Stefanovich7Fishchenko19Makarov6Polyakov22Rodionov24Kakhidze33Garakoev98Ovchinnikov

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles

Veles beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 in First League on August 22, 2020.

Goals: I. Klimov (5'), A. Maksimenko (45+1'), E. Nizamutdinov (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles