Veles 4–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

I. Stefanovich 90+1'

A. Kakhidze 60'

A. Maksimenko 53'

E. Botaka-Yoboma 31'

A. Nosov 70'

E. Nizamutdinov 17'

11/29/2020

First League · Round 25Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles44%

×Draw26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.12

Veles

1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.12

Veles creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 122 away

1.40

creates per match

0.99

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veles or draw

71%

Veles or Shinnik Yaroslavl

74%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

56%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

21%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

76%

Veles 2+ goals

42%

Veles 3+ goals

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

67%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

60%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veles scores more

44%

level

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

29%

Veles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Nizamutdinov

31'

E. Botaka-Yoboma

34'

Evgeny Steshin

46'

A. Osipov← T. Dzhamalutdinov

53'

60'

69'

70'

72'

I. Stefanovich← A. Baev

72'

M. Maiga← R. Fishchenko

75'

P. Ignatovich← A. Nosov

76'

N. Kirsanov← A. Galoyan

79'

E. Nasedkin← V. Zinkov

83'

A. Shchadin← P. Evseev

84'

A. Vakulich← K. Rodionov

90+1'

I. Stefanovich

Veles4-3-1-2

Shinnik4-4-2

22

Samodin

9

⚽

Nizamutdi

15

Samoylov

5

▼

Zinkov

70

⚽

▼

33

3

17

8

▼

4

13

35

24

⚽

Kakhidze

2

⚽

Botaka-Yo

77

Kotov

20

Malaniya

11

▼

Galoyan

22

▼

Rodionov

47

▼

Dzhamalut

7

▼

Fishchenk

55

⚽

Maksimenk

21

▼

Baev

Manager: A. Stukalov

46'▲A. Osipov←▼T. Dzhamalutdinov

72'▲I. Stefanovich←▼A. Baev

72'▲M. Maiga←▼R. Fishchenko

76'▲N. Kirsanov←▼A. Galoyan

84'▲A. Vakulich←▼K. Rodionov

Veles substitutes

34Osipov9Stefanovich88Maiga10Kirsanov42Vakulich6Polyakov33Garakoev52Kovalenko93Gorodovoy99Grachov

Manager: Y. Gazzaev

75'▲P. Ignatovich←▼A. Nosov

79'▲E. Nasedkin←▼V. Zinkov

83'▲A. Shchadin←▼P. Evseev

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

29Ignatovich14Nasedkin27Shchadin10Matskharashvili16Yashin21Golub64Kutin77Gongapshev