Veles 0–1 Rodina Moskva II: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rodina Moskva II

5/3/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 11Avangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veles43%

×Draw28%

Rodina Moskva II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Veles

1.30

Rodina Moskva II

1.00

Veles creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

1.11

0.89

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Veles

1.49

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

allows per match

Veles

0.89

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Rodina Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Veles or draw

71%

Veles or Rodina Moskva II

72%

Draw or Rodina Moskva II

57%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

20%

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

73%

Veles 2+ goals

37%

Veles 3+ goals

14%

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

63%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

26%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

60%

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Veles scores more

43%

level

28%

Rodina Moskva II scores more

29%

Veles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff