Rodina Moskva II 0–0 Veles: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Veles

3/15/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 3Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II32%

×Draw28%

Veles39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.21

Rodina Moskva II

1.06

Veles

1.21

Veles creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

1.11

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

Veles

0.97

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.44

Veles

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw

61%

Rodina Moskva II or Veles

72%

Draw or Veles

68%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

12%

Veles wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

65%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

29%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

9%

Veles 1+ goals

70%

Veles 2+ goals

34%

Veles 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

45%

Veles (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Veles away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Veles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Veles attack 0.97 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more

32%

level

28%

Veles scores more

39%

Veles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Svintsov

39'

K. Kistenev

61'

A. Biryukov← D. Svintsov

61'

M. Danilin← V. Samko

71'

I. Melikov← A. Shubin

71'

E. Sysoev← O. Smirnov

71'

A. Bykovskiy← Z. Tarasenko

78'

N. Savin← G. Knyazev

78'

M. Burlakov← A. Gordyushenko

78'

I. Sapozhnikov← V. Galkin

78'

I. Nikin← D. Sergeev

80'

A. A. Khorin← R. Maltsev

87'

V. Volkov

90+2'

I. Melikov

Rodina

Veles

1

54

5

3

88

22

18

▼

Sergeev

97

▼

Shubin

90

▼

Galkin

77

▼

Smirnov

8

▼

58

74

82

87

95

12

70

▼

Samko

72

▼

Gordyushe

79

▼

Svintsov

89

▼

Maltsev

92

▼

Knyazev

61'▲A. Biryukov←▼D. Svintsov

61'▲M. Danilin←▼V. Samko

78'▲N. Savin←▼G. Knyazev

78'▲M. Burlakov←▼A. Gordyushenko

80'▲A. A. Khorin←▼R. Maltsev

Rodina Moskva II substitutes

35Tarasov27Larionov44Baranov69Khezhev83Lazarev11Kozhedub24Biryukov30Danilin76Savin98Khorin28Burlakov90Vozrastov

71'▲I. Melikov←▼A. Shubin

71'▲E. Sysoev←▼O. Smirnov

71'▲A. Bykovskiy←▼Z. Tarasenko

78'▲I. Sapozhnikov←▼V. Galkin

78'▲I. Nikin←▼D. Sergeev

Veles substitutes

76Kuptsov70Zakharzhevskiy80Rybalko23Skvortsov6Melikov20Sysoev21Sapozhnikov87Nikin9Giraev19Bykovskiy92Popov