Veles 0–4 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Veles

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

10/31/2021

First League · Round 20Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veles40%

×Draw26%

Fakel Voronezh34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelesExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Veles

1.35

Fakel Voronezh

1.23

Veles creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 89 away

1.40

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Veles

1.40

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

Veles

1.25

Fakel Voronezh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veles+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veles or draw

66%

Veles or Fakel Voronezh

74%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

60%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+

18%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals

74%

Veles 2+ goals

39%

Veles 3+ goals

15%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

71%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

35%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)

54%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.40 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Veles defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veles scores more

40%

level

26%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

34%

Veles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff