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Veles vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Veles
Veles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
9/23/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 11Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veles49%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veles
1.52
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00

Veles creates 52% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

creates per match

Veles
1.49
Dinamo Bryansk
1.11

allows per match

Veles
0.89
Dinamo Bryansk
1.56

finishing

Veles+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veles ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Veles or draw
75%
Veles or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
51%

Winning margin

Veles wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Veles 1+ goals
78%
Veles 2+ goals
45%
Veles 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Veles (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veles at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veles attack 1.49 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Veles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Veles scores more
49%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
25%

Veles at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veles vs Dinamo Bryansk

Veles beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.