Dinamo Bryansk 1–0 Veles: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Veles

D. Dibirgadzhiev 56'

4/28/2021

First League · Round 39Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%

×Draw30%

Veles38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.12

Dinamo Bryansk

1.02

Veles

1.12

Veles creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

0.71

creates per match

0.95

1.29

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Veles

0.95

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Veles

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

62%

Dinamo Bryansk or Veles

70%

Draw or Veles

67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

12%

Veles wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

27%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

8%

Veles 1+ goals

67%

Veles 2+ goals

31%

Veles 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

46%

Veles (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Veles attack 0.95 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

33%

level

30%

Veles scores more

38%

Veles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Vladislav Drogunov

46'

N. Muromskiy← G. Chirkin

56'

D. Dibirgadzhiev

59'

A. Chukanov← L. NDiaye

61'

A. Bokovoy← S. Garakoev

61'

A. Fedchuk← M. Iosipoi

75'

A. Osipov← A. Galoyan

90+2'

V. Sorokin← P. Baranov

Dinamo4-4-2

Veles4-1-4-1

19

▼

N'Diaye

88

Maiga

97

▼

Iosipoi

7

Fishchenk

11

▼

Galoyan

33

▼

5

2

42

20

35

1

86

▼

4

12

39

8

▼

9

20

10

11

⚽

Dibirgadz

27

Radchenko

Manager: E. Perevertaylo

46'▲N. Muromskiy←▼G. Chirkin

90+2'▲V. Sorokin←▼P. Baranov

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

22Muromskiy14Sorokin5Nikitin15Novikov17Agureev77Gorozia95Vambolt

Manager: D. Beznyak

59'▲A. Chukanov←▼L. NDiaye

61'▲A. Bokovoy←▼S. Garakoev

61'▲A. Fedchuk←▼M. Iosipoi

75'▲A. Osipov←▼A. Galoyan

Veles substitutes

8Chukanov17Bokovoy91Fedchuk34Osipov10Kirsanov22Rodionov24Kakhidze47Dzhamalutdinov77Kotov98Ovchinnikov