Veleçiku Koplik 0–2 Partizani Tirana II

Veleçiku Koplik

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Partizani Tirana II

4/10/2021

1st Division · Relegation Round - 2Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik30%

×Draw27%

Partizani Tirana II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veleçiku KoplikExpected goals in this matchPartizani Tirana II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.41

Veleçiku Koplik

1.11

Partizani Tirana II

1.41

Partizani Tirana II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

0.84

creates per match

1.38

1.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik

0.84

Partizani Tirana II

1.38

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik

1.44

Partizani Tirana II

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Partizani Tirana II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw

56%

Veleçiku Koplik or Partizani Tirana II

73%

Draw or Partizani Tirana II

70%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+

12%

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals

67%

Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals

30%

Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals

10%

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals

76%

Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals

41%

Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)

40%

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more

30%

level

27%

Partizani Tirana II scores more

44%

Partizani Tirana II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Partizani Tirana II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff