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Partizani Tirana II vs Veleçiku Koplik — 1st Division 2019

Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
5/12/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 7Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II37%
×Draw26%
Veleçiku Koplik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizani Tirana II
1.35
Veleçiku Koplik
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.00
Veleçiku Koplik
0.79

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.92
Veleçiku Koplik
1.71

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par
Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw
63%
Partizani Tirana II or Veleçiku Koplik
74%
Draw or Veleçiku Koplik
63%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
17%
Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
74%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
39%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
15%
Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
74%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
39%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
50%
Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more
37%
level
26%
Veleçiku Koplik scores more
37%

Partizani Tirana II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Partizani Tirana II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Partizani Tirana II 4–2 Veleçiku Koplik

Partizani Tirana II beat Veleçiku Koplik 4-2 in 1st Division on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.