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Veleçiku Koplik vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
4/24/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 4Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik31%
×Draw28%
Erzeni Shijak42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veleçiku Koplik
1.06
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

Erzeni Shijak creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik
0.84
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik
1.44
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw
58%
Veleçiku Koplik or Erzeni Shijak
72%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
69%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
12%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
65%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
29%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
9%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
72%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
37%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
42%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more
31%
level
28%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
42%

Erzeni Shijak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Veleçiku Koplik 0–2 Erzeni Shijak

Erzeni Shijak beat Veleçiku Koplik 2-0 in 1st Division on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi in Shkodër.