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Erzeni Shijak vs Veleçiku Koplik — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
5/22/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 9Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Erzeni Shijak49%
×Draw27%
Veleçiku Koplik24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.45
Veleçiku Koplik
0.93

Erzeni Shijak creates 56% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 24 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Veleçiku Koplik
0.79

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Veleçiku Koplik
1.71

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
76%
Erzeni Shijak or Veleçiku Koplik
73%
Draw or Veleçiku Koplik
51%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
24%
Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
77%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
42%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
18%
Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
61%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
24%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
67%
Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
49%
level
27%
Veleçiku Koplik scores more
24%

Erzeni Shijak at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzeni Shijak vs Veleçiku Koplik

Erzeni Shijak and Veleçiku Koplik drew 2-2 in 1st Division on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.