Veleçiku Koplik 0–0 Burreli: Result & Stats

Veleçiku Koplik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burreli

7/18/2020

1st Division · Relegation Round - 8Fusha sportive Reshit Rusi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Veleçiku Koplik36%

×Draw28%

Burreli36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veleçiku KoplikExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.15

Veleçiku Koplik

1.14

Burreli

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 100 away

0.84

creates per match

0.86

1.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Veleçiku Koplik

0.84

Burreli

0.86

allows per match

Veleçiku Koplik

1.44

Burreli

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veleçiku Koplik ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Veleçiku Koplik or draw

64%

Veleçiku Koplik or Burreli

72%

Draw or Burreli

64%

Winning margin

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+

15%

Burreli wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals

68%

Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals

32%

Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals

11%

Burreli 1+ goals

68%

Burreli 2+ goals

32%

Burreli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)

50%

Burreli (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veleçiku Koplik at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.84 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Burreli attack 0.86 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Veleçiku Koplik scores more

36%

level

28%

Burreli scores more

36%

Veleçiku Koplik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Veleçiku Koplik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff