Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burreli vs Veleçiku Koplik — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
2/22/20201st Division1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Burreli54%
×Draw27%
Veleçiku Koplik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.42
Veleçiku Koplik
0.70

Burreli creates 103% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 24 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Veleçiku Koplik
0.79

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Veleçiku Koplik
1.71

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
82%
Burreli or Veleçiku Koplik
73%
Draw or Veleçiku Koplik
46%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
27%
Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
76%
Burreli 2+ goals
41%
Burreli 3+ goals
17%
Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
50%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
16%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
75%
Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Burreli scores more
54%
level
27%
Veleçiku Koplik scores more
18%

Burreli at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Veleçiku Koplik

Burreli and Veleçiku Koplik drew 1-1 in 1st Division on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.