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Velbazhd vs Sportist Svoge — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 1
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
8/22/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 3Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Velbazhd26%
×Draw23%
Sportist Svoge51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.24
Sportist Svoge
1.84

Sportist Svoge creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Sportist Svoge
1.42

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Sportist Svoge
1.85

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
49%
Velbazhd or Sportist Svoge
77%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
74%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
11%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
71%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
35%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
13%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
84%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
55%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
33%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sportist Svoge attack 1.42 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velbazhd scores more
26%
level
23%
Sportist Svoge scores more
51%

Sportist Svoge at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velbazhd vs Sportist Svoge

Velbazhd and Sportist Svoge drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil)).