Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportist Svoge vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
1 – 2
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
3/9/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 20Gradski stadion (Svoge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sportist Svoge66%
×Draw20%
Velbazhd15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
2.15
Velbazhd
0.91

Sportist Svoge creates 136% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.50
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.31
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
85%
Sportist Svoge or Velbazhd
80%
Draw or Velbazhd
34%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
42%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
88%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
63%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
36%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
60%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
23%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
81%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.50 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.15

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
66%
level
20%
Velbazhd scores more
15%

Sportist Svoge at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs Velbazhd

Velbazhd beat Sportist Svoge 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Svoge).