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Velbazhd vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
0 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
11/28/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 17Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd24%
×Draw25%
Slivnishki geroy51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.04
Slivnishki geroy
1.64

Slivnishki geroy creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 130 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
49%
Velbazhd or Slivnishki geroy
75%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
76%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
9%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
65%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
28%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
9%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
81%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
49%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
32%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velbazhd scores more
24%
level
25%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
51%

Slivnishki geroy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velbazhd vs Slivnishki geroy

Velbazhd and Slivnishki geroy drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.