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Slivnishki geroy vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
3 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
9/8/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 6Gradski stadion (Slivnitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Slivnishki geroy69%
×Draw19%
Velbazhd12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
2.20
Velbazhd
0.80

Slivnishki geroy creates 175% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 34 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
88%
Slivnishki geroy or Velbazhd
81%
Draw or Velbazhd
31%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
45%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
89%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
64%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
37%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
55%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
19%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
85%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.20

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
69%
level
19%
Velbazhd scores more
12%

Slivnishki geroy at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slivnishki geroy vs Velbazhd

Slivnishki geroy beat Velbazhd 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Slivnitsa).