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Velbazhd vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
4/7/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 25Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd26%
×Draw25%
Pirin Razlog50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.09
Pirin Razlog
1.62

Pirin Razlog creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 131 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
50%
Velbazhd or Pirin Razlog
75%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
74%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
10%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
66%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
30%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
10%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
80%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
48%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
34%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.09

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Velbazhd scores more
26%
level
25%
Pirin Razlog scores more
50%

Pirin Razlog at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velbazhd vs Pirin Razlog

Velbazhd beat Pirin Razlog 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.