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Pirin Razlog vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
2 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
11/21/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 16Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pirin Razlog66%
×Draw20%
Velbazhd14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
2.07
Velbazhd
0.81

Pirin Razlog creates 156% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
86%
Pirin Razlog or Velbazhd
80%
Draw or Velbazhd
34%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
42%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
87%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
61%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
34%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
56%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
19%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
83%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.07

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
66%
level
20%
Velbazhd scores more
14%

Pirin Razlog at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Razlog 2–0 Velbazhd

Pirin Razlog beat Velbazhd 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.