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Velbazhd vs Pirin Gotse Delchev — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 2
Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
5/22/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 33Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd33%
×Draw24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.42
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.67

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.07

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.22

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
57%
Velbazhd or Pirin Gotse Delchev
76%
Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev
67%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
15%
Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
76%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
41%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
17%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
81%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
50%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
43%
Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Velbazhd scores more
33%
level
24%
Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
43%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 1–2 Pirin Gotse Delchev

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Velbazhd 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.