Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
FT
3 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
9/26/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev66%
×Draw20%
Velbazhd14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.09
Velbazhd
0.86

Pirin Gotse Delchev creates 143% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.40
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.22
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Gotse Delchev ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pirin Gotse Delchev or draw
86%
Pirin Gotse Delchev or Velbazhd
80%
Draw or Velbazhd
34%

Winning margin

Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
41%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
88%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
62%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
34%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
58%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
21%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
82%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Gotse Delchev at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 88 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.40 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
66%
level
20%
Velbazhd scores more
14%

Pirin Gotse Delchev at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pirin Gotse Delchev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pirin Gotse Delchev vs Velbazhd

Pirin Gotse Delchev beat Velbazhd 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Gotse Delchev.