Velbazhd 0–1 FK Minyor Pernik: Result & Stats

Velbazhd

FT

0 – 1

FK Minyor Pernik

3/16/2019

Third League - Southwest · Round 21Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd15%

×Draw22%

FK Minyor Pernik64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelbazhdExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.88

Velbazhd

0.76

FK Minyor Pernik

1.88

FK Minyor Pernik creates 147% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 45 away

0.62

creates per match

1.49

2.26

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Velbazhd

0.62

FK Minyor Pernik

1.49

allows per match

Velbazhd

2.26

FK Minyor Pernik

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw

36%

Velbazhd or FK Minyor Pernik

78%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

85%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+

4%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals

53%

Velbazhd 2+ goals

18%

Velbazhd 3+ goals

4%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

85%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

56%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)

19%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.76

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Velbazhd scores more

15%

level

22%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

64%

FK Minyor Pernik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff